Sowing the Seeds of Self-Reliance for Forty Years
Computers and Capricious
Weather Impact Food Outlook
31 July 97
by Geri Guidetti
All contents copyright © 1997, Geri Guidetti. All rights reserved.
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Play a mind game with me. Let’s say an American farmer who raised food for market in the 1940s and 1950s is now deceased. Today, as he looks down from the great Heaven where all good farmers get to spend eternity, he shakes his head in confusion and concern. When he farmed he had to know and care for his land. He had to plant the right stuff at the right time, and then he had to pray for good weather. There were good harvests and bad, and the difference between them generally depended on seed, skill and weather. Today’s farmers, he notes, still worry about weather, but what’s with this growing dependence on computers for food production? Can this really be as good as it looks?
The U.S. Department of Agriculture released an interesting new study today that presents data on the extent of computer usage by American farmers. Every year in June, a nationwide survey of crop plantings, grain and livestock inventories and farm land values is conducted. This year a new question category was added: computers. Information on computer access, ownership, use for farm business and Internet access was gathered and summarized. The findings are interesting and implications for global food supply short- and long-term worth pondering, I think.
The data was broken down into four farming regions, three economic classes (land values, it appears) and then summarized for the Nation. For a total of 2.05 million farms studied, here’s what they found:
o
For 1.03 million farms valued at $ 1,000 - 9,999 – 11 percent use computers for farm business.
For 1.03 million farms valued at $ 1,000 - 9,999 – 11 percent use computers for farm business. oFor 676.6 thousand farms valued at $ 10,000 - 99,000 – 20 percent use computers for farm business.
For 676.6 thousand farms valued at $ 10,000 - 99,000 – 20 percent use computers for farm business.oFor 346.8 thousand farms valued at $ 100,000 and over – 47 percent use computers for farm business.
For 346.8 thousand farms valued at $ 100,000 and over – 47 percent use computers for farm business. Of all of these farms, 916,100 were crop farms. Twenty-four percent of the crop farmers in the study use computers for the business of raising crops. This business can range from bookkeeping, accounting ,sales and marketing functions, to seed inventories, crop data and the like. Note that the highest percentage of those using computers for business were in the higher valued farms. These, one would expect, are raising the largest quantities of food. The rest of the farms in the study were livestock farms—1.14 million of them—and 17 percent of livestock farms used computers for the business of raising meat animals.
In a future Grain Update, I plan to write about a very promising and rapidly expanding new agricultural technology called precision farming, but it should be mentioned here. In a nutshell, it relies on sophisticated sensors and a computer in the cab of a hi-tech tractor and the relay of data gathered to and from an orbiting satellite shooting images of the Earth. The farmer’s computer, data and sophisticated software allow him or her to precisely determine just where deficiencies exist in the field and to apply just enough fertilizer or soil amendments to correct them. Crop and soil assessments, weed and insect burdens and other analyses can minimize time and guesswork and maximize yields. The environment benefits as well—from the lower applications of weed killers and pesticides, from water conserving irrigation, etc.
Given the fact that this Update is being created on, mailed and received by computer, it is obvious that there is no anti-computer sentiment from this corner of the world. In fact, it’s tough—really tough—to think of life without it. Yet, that may be precisely what we face in the near future when the dreaded Year 2000 bug strikes. I’ve been worrying a lot lately about its potential impact on national and global food supply.
What happens if, down on the farm, the embedded computer chips and application software in those super high-tech tractors, grain combines and other sophisticated farm machinery crash on January 1, 2000? Do you think that the average farmer, however sophisticated, is fretting about finding and fixing lines of code in his machinery today? I’ll bet my money that he’s worried more about the weather.
If the crops DO make it to and from the fields that year, where will the farmer sell them? Markets used to be local and regional, but now they really are global and very complex. They are dependent on international loans, payments, the electronic exchange of money. They are dependent on international banks. The global marketplace is incredibly dependent on computers. None of the governments, agencies or business entities involved in local, regional or global food production, distribution or financing has announced that they are Year 2000 compliant as far as I’ve read. If they haven’t announced it, it’s a sure bet that they aren’t, and they are running out of time.
If the crops DO make it to market with limited chaos, will they make it to the food processors, alcohol and sweetener producers, industrial chemical manufacturers with minimal disruption? If they make it to the processors, will the food make it to each supermarket across the nation dependably? Every day?
As dependence on computers for bringing food (and water) to our tables grows, so does our vulnerability on December 31. 1999. That’s the risk we’re taking.
Weather is an easier risk to get a mental grip on and, perhaps, a bit more predictable than possible computer-inflicted food crises. Hurricane Danny brought too much of a good thing to the southeastern and Gulf states this past week, dumping an incredible 30 inches of rain on parts of Alabama. The Charlotte, NC area got 10.3 inches in 48 hours. Here in north central Maryland, we are in the clutches of a stubborn drought despite a bit of water from the remnants of the hurricane. The western half of the country got the hot, dry weather that is ideal for harvesting what winter wheat remains in the field, yet the 100+ degree temperatures and dryness of Nebraska has stressed crops and pasture. It’s time to see how this season’s crops are shaping up. By July 27th:
•Winter wheat harvest was 79 percent complete. Harvests are behind normal in Washington and Idaho
Winter wheat harvest was 79 percent complete. Harvests are behind normal in Washington and Idaho•Crops are stressed in parts of the Corn Belt. In Indiana soil moisture continued to decline and large areas of Iowa are very dry. Corn silking was generally ahead of 1996 in the western Corn Belt states, but behind in the eastern states. (One aside, here: corn will silk at 18 inches tall when it is dwarfed by water stress.)
Crops are stressed in parts of the Corn Belt. In Indiana soil moisture continued to decline and large areas of Iowa are very dry. Corn silking was generally ahead of 1996 in the western Corn Belt states, but behind in the eastern states. (One aside, here: corn will silk at 18 inches tall when it is dwarfed by water stress.) •Soybeans were in bloom on 68 percent of the Nation’s farms and 18 percent were setting pods. This is about average. Soybean condition was mostly good, though they are suffering both heat and water stress in the eastern Corn Belt states. This dryness extends to parts of the mid-Atlantic states as well.
Soybeans were in bloom on 68 percent of the Nation’s farms and 18 percent were setting pods. This is about average. Soybean condition was mostly good, though they are suffering both heat and water stress in the eastern Corn Belt states. This dryness extends to parts of the mid-Atlantic states as well. •Spring wheat and barley crop condition declined as dryness and heat prevailed over the northern plains states. Keep in mind that spring and winter wheat plantings this year were already down 6 percent over 1996.
Spring wheat and barley crop condition declined as dryness and heat prevailed over the northern plains states. Keep in mind that spring and winter wheat plantings this year were already down 6 percent over 1996. •Oats were harvested in Nebraska and Pennsylvania, but progress was average or behind across the rest of the country.
Oats were harvested in Nebraska and Pennsylvania, but progress was average or behind across the rest of the country.•Peanut crop condition declined in Georgia due to lack of rain.
Peanut crop condition declined in Georgia due to lack of rain. •The rice crop in Louisiana is being seriously plagued by----blackbirds!
The rice crop in Louisiana is being seriously plagued by----blackbirds! The markets always mirror a less than stellar outlook for a season’s crops just as they do the rosy predictions. Today’s Wall Street Journal reports that corn and soybean prices are rising along with fears that dry weather will hurt yields. That’s a good bet at the moment. Short corn generally yields short, sparse and light-weight ears if it makes ears at all. The Department of Agriculture’s and other’s optimistic outlook for a bumper crop of corn this year will likely wither with the corn. When you think corn, think meat as well as muffins. The majority of it goes to produce meat.
Though not clearly visible to the casual eye, we face big challenges on the food front, yet we continue to consolidate production, distribution and control. Consolidation and centralization of control, aided and even permitted by now questionable computer technology , renders us ever more vulnerable to supply disruptions. ...Geri Guidetti, The Ark Institute.
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Food and Grain Supply Updates may be reprinted without permission IF no revisions are made and copyright and signature files remain intact.
All contents copyright © 1997, Geri Guidetti. All rights reserved.
Revised: 4 Aug 97
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