Sowing the Seeds of Self-Reliance for Forty Years
Can Science Save Us From Starvation?
3 March 97
by Geri Guidetti
All contents copyright © 1997, Geri Guidetti. All rights reserved.
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On February 24 and 25 in Washington DC, the United States Department of Agriculture held the 1997 World Agricultural Outlook Forum. The theme of the conference, " Charting a New Course", spotlighted the dramatic changes occurring in food production and distribution here and around the world. I attended this conference, spoke and listened to many of the brightest minds in the business, and brought back reams of information representing the current thinking of those who research, regulate, influence, and implement the production of food. What they think, believe and do directly and indirectly impacts present and future food supplies—ours and the rest of the world’s.
Beginning with this Food Supply Update, and until this season’s planting and market activities demand daily attention, I will present some of the important food issues, opinions and ideas addressed at Forum ‘97 and offer some personal insight as well. It is my hope that this effort will increase both awareness of our growing vulnerability to potential food supply crises and dialogue surrounding global food security.
The Director General of the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), Per Pinstrup-Andersen, presented a paper entitled, "The Role of Research in the Outlook for World Hunger."
"Modern science offers humankind a powerful instrument to assure food security for all without degrading the environment," he began. Since the early 1960s, food availability per person has increased nearly 20 percent and 1.5 billion additional people are being fed in developing countries. Modern science has transformed agriculture by increasing crop yields, thus sparing millions of hectares of forest and marginal lands that would have been converted to farm lands in an attempt to produce more food.
Despite this successful application of science to the production of food he cites:
Over 800 million people live in uncertainty of their next full meal. And 185 million preschool children suffer compromised mental and physical development because of malnutrition.•About 80 million people are expected to be added to the global population every year for the next 25 years. •Global demand for grain is projected to increase 55 percent between 1990 and 2020; for livestock products, 75 percent; for roots and tubers, 50 percent.
"Existing technology and knowledge will not permit production of the food needed to assure a food-secure world in the years to come. There are no grounds to assume that yield increases can and will continue to grow at the same rates as in the past," he warned.
He calls for the mobilization of national and international agricultural research to develop new technologies and knowledge, and for the strengthening of extension systems to disseminate new information as it is developed. Citing declining, low or variable crop yields in less optimal growing areas, Pinstrup-Andersen stressed the need for accelerated research to develop more drought tolerant crops and those adapted to broader ecological settings.
While research has supported dramatic yield increases in more favorable growing areas like the United States, these yields are also leveling off as crop plants have reached biological limits of production despite the addition of more water, fertilizer, herbicides and pesticides. Misuse and overuse of these inputs has led to environmental degradation and the depletion of water supplies.
Ways to better use diminishing or marginal natural resources in the effort to produce more food must also be sought, the Director General said. The reduction of soil erosion, more effective capture and use of moisture in soil, recycling of organic plant nutrients, and the integration of livestock and trees into cropping systems are all needed.
Modern biotechnology, coupled with traditional plant breeding methods, offers the greatest potential for increasing crop yields and productivity, he believes. Yet, he notes that little research in biotechnology is occurring in or for developing countries where the majority of the global population increase is occurring. Most biotechnology research is done in and for developed, industrialized countries and for temperate climates. He appealed for the collaboration of private and public entities from industrialized countries with international research programs to address the urgent need for modern help in developing countries.
He closed his speech with the following:
"In a world where the consequence of inaction is death for thousands of children daily and persisting hunger for millions of people, we cannot afford to be philosophical or elitist about any possible solution, including agricultural biotechnology. Modern science by itself will not assure food for all, but without it the goal of food security for all cannot be achieved."
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Commentary
Pinstrup-Andersen is correct in calling for the global mobilization of scientific research to develop new knowledge and technologies that have the potential for increasing crop yields. In fact, at one point in his presentation, he left his prepared speech for a moment and commented to his audience that "...we must insert some urgency into the need for research." He is correct on this count as well. The reality of having to feed 80 million new mouths a year at the same time that the yields of our most productive food crop varieties are leveling off or even declining, demand an attitude of urgency.
Yet, this Food Policy Research Institute leader recognizes that scientific research alone will not stave off starvation for millions in the future. Though he opened his talk with the assertion that science offers a means to "...assure food security for all...", he closes with the acknowledgment that "Modern science by itself will not assure food for all... ." The latter is accurate. Science represents "a" means by which we can improve the odds that we will be able to feed ourselves, but it is not "the" means by which we will save the world from increasingly widespread famines.
In addition to accelerating research in agricultural biotechnology, we have to study and optimize the use of existing agricultural land, especially in marginal growing areas and developing countries. We must maximize the benefits while minimizing the environmental impact of agricultural inputs such as irrigation water, pesticides and herbicides. We need to maximize the return of organic materials to depleted agricultural soils and minimize erosion. His is a much needed global view of the challenge of feeding ever greater numbers of humans on a planet with finite resources and deteriorating environments. His is a view of how global agricultural systems must evolve to provide food for the billions of individuals dependent on them.
Evolve is the key word here. The kind of effort it will take to increase the world’s food production in synch with growing global population will require unprecedented public and private collaboration and cooperation. It will not happen tomorrow. Given the current realities of national and international politics and the disincentive for private investment in unstable, developing countries and potential competitors, I do not expect a timely agricultural revolution. Rather, I expect an evolution of the realization that the food needs of people on one side of the globe are inextricably linked to those on the other -- the realization that the agricultural and environmental activities of one country eventually impact all others. It is simply biology and in everyone’s best interest to care and collaborate. Until then, it will be largely business as usual—a global agricultural market driven by weather, supply, demand and competition. "Them that has" can pay for the products, "them that don’t" cannot. Patch and repair the holes in the "boat" when they appear, or learn to ignore them on the evening news.
As this year’s 80 million new mouths cry to be fed, it would be wise to learn something about raising our own food and even to become as food self-sufficient as possible. Pockets of food productivity tucked here and there among the world’s cities and suburbs will not only serve to feed when unexpected shortages or outright crop or delivery failures occur, but to teach our children and others how to feed themselves if the necessity arises. If nothing else, it serves to remind all of us that plentiful food is not a given... Geri Guidetti, The Ark Institute.
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Email for information: arkinstitute@aol.com
This article may be reprinted IF my copyright and Sig. File are reprinted intact.
All contents copyright © 1997, Geri Guidetti. All rights reserved.
Revised: 7 Feb 97
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